Amazing Kamala/Trump Alpha Trade
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Good morning members!
I just discovered a trade for the Kamala/Trump election now that the FTC has legalized betting on the election for people that live in the US.
There is a massive spread on betting odds right now (both on very liquid markets) that is providing 130:1 risk reward. To rephrase: if you’re right, you can expect to win $13 and if you’re wrong you can expect to lose $0.10.
Here’s the code behind how I found my trade:
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Here is the trade (remember, this is NOT financial advice):
You sell the Kamala YES contract on Kalshi for the bid price of 50 cents:
You BUY the Kamala NO contract on Polymarket for 46.6 cents:
Outcome 1: Kamala Wins
If Kamala wins then you win 214 contracts that settle at $1 for a total of $214
you will lose 200 contracts that you must pay out for $1 for a total of $200
Total profit if Kamala yes is $14
Outcome 2: Kamala Loses
If Kamala loses then you gain 200 contracts that you sold for $0.5 for a credit of $100.0
You will lose the 214 contracts that you bought for $0.466 for a loss of $99.72399999999999
your total loss is around $0.27
This is an amazing opportunity for a huge +EV trade.
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Thanks and have a great week!
-Adit Dayal